Risks of fatal cancer from inhalation of 239,240plutonium by humans: a combined four-method approach with uncertainty...

The risk per unit dose to the four primary cancer sites for plutonium inhalation exposure (lung, liver, bone, bone marrow) is estimated by combining the risk estimates that are derived from four independent approaches. Each approach represents a fundamentally different source of data from which plutonium risk estimates can be derived. These are: (1) epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to plutonium; (2) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to low-LET radiation combined with a factor for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of plutonium alpha particles appropriate for each cancer site of concern; (3) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to alpha-emitting radionuclides other than plutonium; and (4) controlled studies of animals exposed to plutonium and other alpha-emitting radionuclides extrapolated to humans. This procedure yielded the following organ-specific estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit dose from exposure to plutonium expressed as the median estimate with the 5th to 95th percentiles of the distribution in parentheses: lung 0.13 Gy(-1) (0.022-0.53 Gy(-1)); liver 0.057 Gy(-1) (0.011-0.47 Gy(-1)); bone 0.0013 Gy(-1) (0.000060-0.025 Gy(-1)); bone marrow (leukemia), 0.013 Gy(-1) (0.00061-0.05 Gy(-1)). Because the different tissues do not receive the same dose following an inhalation exposure, the mortality risk per unit intake of activity via inhalation of a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol also was determined. To do this, inhalation dose coefficients based on the most recent ICRP models and accounting for input parameter uncertainties were combined with the risk coefficients described above. The following estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit intake were determined for a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol with a geometric standard deviation of 2.5: lung 5.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.65-35 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), liver 1.2 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.091-20 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone 0.11 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0030-4.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone marrow (leukemia) 0.049 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0017-0.59 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)). The cancer mortality risk for all sites was estimated to be 10 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (2.1-55 x 10(-7) Bq(-1))--a result that agrees very well with other recent estimates. The large uncertainties in the risks per unit intake of activity reflect the combined uncertainty in the dose and risk coefficients.