Eddies in the stream: the prevalence of uncertain plans for retirement

This study examined an assumption of retirement theory that typifies older workers as preretirees who are planfully engaged in paths toward retirement.

Using survey responses among workers in the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we described the prevalence of nonsubstantive answers to questions about the expected form and timing of retirement (e.g., "don't know," "haven't thought about it"). We tested explanations for this uncertainty as an artifact of the survey process, but also as an outcome of the opportunity structure for retirement planning.

Survey procedure did generate some of these noncommittal responses. Depending on question type, approximately 10% to 40% of workers did not state when or how they would retire, and such responses were less prevalent across age and time. In addition, categorical uncertainty about form and timing was theoretically predictable in a framework that supposed that workers less subject to a socially attended life--at work or away--would be more undecided about the future.

Uncertainty is an authentic, meaningful stance toward retirement that theory and research design should not ignore. Just as actual transitions to retirement can be ambiguous or blurred, the expectation of retirement, as well, can be untidy.