A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model Mt under closure

A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model Mt is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model Mt, is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84-86) for model Mt, using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.