Clinical perception of disease probability associated with Bethesda System diagnoses

The degree to which clinical perceptions of Papanicolaou smear sensitivity contribute to patient mismanagement is uncertain. A voluntary, anonymous questionnaire was mailed to 350 obstetricians/gynecologists (OGYNs) and 350 other primary care providers (PCPs) located in Pennsylvania or Ohio. The clinicians estimated the probability of no disease, dysplasia, and invasive carcinoma for 1 of 7 Bethesda System diagnoses. Differences in probability estimates between provider types and between the clinicians and medical literature data were measured. The response rate was 22.7%. Compared with published values, clinicians estimated similar disease probabilities for many diagnoses. However, for some diagnoses, the probability estimates differed considerably from published values (e.g., overestimation of dysplasia and invasive carcinoma for benign diagnoses and underestimation of dysplasia for some dysplasia diagnoses), and such errors could contribute to patient mismanagement. OGYNs generally were more accurate in probability estimates than PCPs. Methods to convey more accurately these diagnostic disease probabilities should be examined.