[The release of forensic patients (63 StGB) and the problem of predicting dangerousness]

This article presents first results of a prospective prediction study with participation of twenty-three forensic institutions from seven states of FRG. Main objective of this study is the determination of valid criteria for predicting recidivism of mentally disordered offenders. This evaluation (n = 188) investigates which patients are presently released from forensic institutions. In comparison to previous studies the releases per annum have decreased significantly. In the last two years there has been an increase in release of schizophrenic patients and a decrease in release of patients with a personality disorder and sexual offenders. In addition it has been analyzed which criteria therapists use to predict dangerousness from a clinical point of view.