Risk predictors of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation following aortic valve replacement

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequently encountered arrhythmic complication associated with cardiac surgery. The aim of this paper was to identify the clinical predictors of AF occurrence following aortic valve replacement.

Three hundred and two patients were included in this study and divided into two groups according to the absence (SR group, 243 patients, mean age 55.6 +/- 15 years) or the evidence (AF group, 59 patients, mean age 63.8 +/- 11 years) of post-aortic valve replacement AF. Sixty-five perioperative variables (37 preoperative, 8 intraoperative and 20 postoperative) were considered.

Post-aortic valve replacement paroxysmal AF occurred in 59 out of 302 patients (19%). At univariate analysis, post-aortic valve replacement AF was associated with advanced age, left atrial enlargement, preoperative episodes of paroxysmal AF, the use of a warm blood cardioplegic solution and normothermia, administration of inotropic agents, prolonged assisted ventilation but also with postoperative acidosis, electrolyte imbalance and atrioventricular and intraventricular conduction disorders. Stepwise forward multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age (p = 0.002, odds ratio--OR 1.04), left atrial enlargement (p = 0.004, OR 2.6), a prior history of paroxysmal AF (p = 0.0003, OR 10.9), and postoperative electrolyte imbalance (p = 0.01, OR 2.3) as independent correlates of AF, whereas the use of hypothermia appeared to be a protective factor (p = 0.0004, OR 0.26).

According to our findings, post-aortic valve replacement AF seems to be associated with well-defined anatomical and electrical substrates generated by advanced age, increased left atrial dimensions, and a possible electrical remodeling consequent to prior repetitive episodes of paroxysmal AF. On these grounds, external factors such as postoperative electrolyte imbalance might enhance atrial ectopic activity and trigger postoperative sustained tachyarrhythmias, while the use of hypothermia might allow for better protection of the atrial myocardium against intraoperative ischemia.