[Time course of demographic processes in the Astrakhan region in the nineties]

Time course of demographic processes in the Astrakhan region during economic reforms in Russia is analyzed. An unfavorable demographic situation consists in decreased number of children and increase in the number of subjects of retired age, a lesser number of women of reproductive age, decreased number of marriages and increased number of divorces. Decreased birth rate and increased mortality, formation of the negative natural increment in population number, and decreased mean duration of expected life-span. Increase in the population of the region from 1991 was due to newcomers, mainly from North Caucasus. The results of our analysis allow us to predict a decrease in the total number of population in the Astrakhan region for the nearest 10-15 years. Decreased number of children and increased number of elderly people will increase the demographic loading of capable population, which will inevitably lead to negative economic and demographic consequences.