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Modelling the future costs of breast screening
1Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Institute of Health Sciences, Headington, OX3 7LF, Oxford, UK. kathy.johnston@ihs.ox.ac.uk
European Journal of Cancer (Oxford, England : 1990)
|September 11, 2001
Summary
This study estimates future breast cancer and non-breast cancer costs related to breast screening. Including non-breast cancer costs may negate savings, increasing overall future healthcare expenses.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Oncology
- Public Health
Background:
- Breast cancer screening aims to reduce mortality and associated costs.
- Accurate economic evaluation requires considering all relevant healthcare costs.
- The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) stratifies patients by prognosis, influencing cost predictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate future breast cancer and non-breast cancer costs linked to breast screening.
- To analyze the impact of patient prognosis on these future costs.
- To evaluate the net economic effect of breast screening, including diverse cost categories.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) for patient stratification.
- Employed a Markov model to forecast costs for different prognostic groups.
- Calculated both breast cancer and non-breast cancer costs.
Main Results:
- Breast cancer costs escalate with poorer prognosis; non-breast cancer costs decrease.
- Total future costs per prognostic group ranged from £10,000 to £11,000.
- While breast cancer cost savings were 20.9% of screening costs, including non-breast costs increased total costs by 5.7%.
Conclusions:
- The inclusion of non-breast cancer costs in economic evaluations of breast screening is methodologically complex.
- Considering non-breast cancer costs can offset potential savings from improved breast cancer prognosis.
- Further debate is needed on incorporating non-breast cancer costs for comprehensive economic assessments of screening programs.