Risk factors for early death in patients undergoing treatment for multiple myeloma

The survival time of myeloma patients improved from a few months to many years after treatment with melphalan. Perhaps chemotherapy more intensive than melphalan-prednisolone should be administered to patients at risk of early death. Therefore, early death must be accurately predicted. We analyzed 93 patients with recently diagnosed myeloma and found that 13 (14%) died within 6 months (early death). The most common cause of death was bacterial and fungal pneumonia when myeloma became uncontrollable. The response to conventional chemotherapy was poorer in patients at high risk of early death than the control group. Multivariate analysis showed that the serum level of beta-2 microglobulin was the only value that predicted early death.