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Fertility in England and Wales: a fifty-year perspective
1Department of Social Policy and administration, London School of Economics and Political Science.
Population Studies
|November 1, 1996
Summary
This study corrects past demographic analysis of fertility trends in England and Wales since 1938. It reinterprets the baby boom and baby bust using improved measurement tools for fertility behavior.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Social Statistics
Background:
- Historical analysis of fertility trends in England and Wales is crucial for understanding population dynamics.
- Previous demographic studies have lacked rigorous application of available measurement tools since the 1950s.
- Accurate measurement of fertility is essential for reliable population projections and policy-making.
Observation:
- Fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938 are detailed, with a broader historical overview.
- Analysis highlights the failure of demographers to utilize advanced measurement tools for fertility analysis.
- Period measures and period parity progression ratios require adjustment for accurate interpretation.
Findings:
- The study corrects errors in past fertility analysis by applying underutilized measurement tools.
- Reinterpretation of the 'baby boom' and 'baby bust' periods is provided based on corrected data.
- Established clearer accounts of fertility trends, linking them to contemporary estimates.
Implications:
- Improved demographic analysis can prevent gross errors in understanding fertility behavior.
- Accurate historical fertility data informs future population projections and social planning.
- Understanding past fertility shifts provides insights into future fertility prospects and potential policy interventions.
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