On the probability of finding an HL-A- and ABO-compatible cadaver organ for transplantation

This paper extends earlier work by Barnes and Miettinen regarding the probabilities of finding an HL-A and ABO-compatible cadaver organ for transplantation to incorporate the dependency of this probability on the continuous time scale. Graphs are derived which enable determination of the length of time required to achieve a certain probability of finding a compatible organ and the probability of finding a compatible organ within any time period. The proposed approach enables the immediate determination of the mean and variance of the required waiting time. The paper provides a practical setting for daily decision-making and enables the physician to more clearly convey information to the patient regarding his chances of finding a compatible donor within any given time period.