[Mortality study of major non-communicable diseases in Shanghai, from 1951 to 1998]

To study the transition of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Shanghai.

Demographic and mortality data since early 1950s in Shanghai was used. Linear regression model was employed to evaluate the mortality trends of diseases.

During the past five decades, age-adjusted mortality had been gradually decreasing, with leading cause of deaths shifting from infectious diseases to NCDs. In 1998, the average life expectancy reached 77.03, and the three leading causes of deaths, i.e. tumor, cardio-vascular diseases and respiratory diseases, accounted for 75% of all deaths. The crude mortality of major NCDs increased consistently. However, the age-adjusted mortality trends of major NCDs decreased during the past two decades after a 30-year's increase. Turnover took place in the late 1970s for tumors, for coronary heart in late 1980s diseases and in the early 1990s for strokes. For malignant tumors, the age-adjusted mortality of breast cancer, cancer of colon and rectum did not significantly decrease in the past two decades.

The increase of crude mortality of major NCDs was mainly due to the trend of aging in Shanghai. It is suggested that the risk factors of major NCDs had decreased to some extent but the behavior and dietary related risk factors remained serious.