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Modelling suicide risk in affective disorders
1Health Services Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, De Crespigny Park, London SE5 9AF, England.
Summary
The lifetime suicide prevalence for affective disorders is estimated at 2.4%, significantly lower than the 15% often cited from hospital data. This finding impacts suicide prevention strategies in primary care settings.
Area of Science:
- Psychiatry
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The commonly cited 15% lifetime suicide risk in affective disorders is primarily based on hospital patient data.
- This study aims to provide a more accurate prevalence estimate using community-based data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the lifetime prevalence of suicide in individuals with affective disorders.
- To compare these rates with traditional figures derived from hospital populations.
Main Methods:
- Secondary analysis of a dataset including 212 completed suicides in North Staffordshire.
- Utilized community-based psychiatric morbidity rates from the National Comorbidity Survey.
Main Results:
- The modeled lifetime suicide prevalence for any affective disorder is 2.4%.
- For cases uncomplicated by substance abuse, personality disorder, or psychosis, the rate is also 2.4%.
- Uncomplicated cases with no prior mental health service contact showed a 1.1% lifetime suicide prevalence.
Conclusions:
- Lifetime suicide prevalence rates in specific subgroups of affective disorders may be lower than previously assumed.
- These findings have significant implications for developing targeted suicide prevention initiatives in primary care.