Social psychological models of choice behavior and drivers' left turns

ABSTRACT. The authors reanalyzed data from a simulated left-turn experiment (P. A. Hancock, J. K. Caird, S. Shekhar, & M. Vercruyssen, 1991) to test the adequacy of the nonlinear Gray-Tallman satisfaction balance model of choice behavior (L. N. Gray & I. Tallman, 1984) in predicting left turns. Participants (Hancock et al., 1991) were 40 experienced U.S. drivers who were exposed to simulated oncoming traffic; the size of the vehicle (motorcycle, compact vehicle, full-sized vehicle, delivery truck), its speed (10-70 mph, or 16-112 kmph), and the intervehicle time gap (3-9 s) varied. Hancock et al. (1991) measured (a) the likelihood of a left turn and (b) the occurrence of a collision. The probability of a left turn was greater for larger intervehicle time gaps and for oncoming smaller vehicles traveling at higher speeds. The Gray-Tallman (1984) model explained 69% of the variation in turning versus 57% for a linear regression model. In making decisions people tend to treat the values and costs affecting choices in a multiplicative, rather than linear, fashion. The Gray-Tallman model also has the potential for incorporating, both theoretically and mathematically, an unlimited range of potential values and costs that may influence left turn decisions.