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Cumulative probability of live birth after three in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles
Katarina Olivius1, Barbro Friden, Kersti Lundin
1Center for Reproductive Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden.
Objective:
To assess the probability of live birth after three available in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) cycles.
Design:
Retrospective, observational study.
Setting:
University hospital.
Patient(S):
Nine hundred seventy-four couples who started their first conventional IVF or ICSI cycle between January 1996 and December 1997. A total of 1985 stimulated cycles were initiated.
Intervention(S):
Analysis of the cumulative live birth rate using the life-table approach with and without taking dropouts into account.
Main Outcome Measure(S):
Cumulative live birth rate.
Result(S):
The overall cumulative live birth rate after three completed stimulated cycles (including freezing/thawing cycles) was 65.5% with an "optimistic" approach. For the "realistic" and "pessimistic" approaches the corresponding figures were 63.1% and 55.5%, respectively. Unexpectedly, 65% of couples not achieving a live birth interrupted the full treatment program of three cycles.
Conclusion(S):
The cumulative live birth rate gives the couple a more accurate prognosis of achieving a live birth after IVF/ICSI than the statistics usually provided. With the "realistic" estimation, 63% of the couples achieved childbirth after three available conventional IVF or ICSI cycles. Further studies are required to investigate the high drop-out rate.
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