What to do about Helicobacter pylori? A decision analysis of its implication on public health

Public health measures to eradicate Helicobacter pylori in the general population may prevent the occurrence of nonulcer dyspepsia (NUD), peptic ulcer (PUD) and gastric cancer, but may at the same time increase the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A decision analysis is carried out to quantify the counteracting influences of H. pylori and resolve the controversy about a public policy to eliminate H. pylori from the general population.

A compartment model is structured to analyze the jointly beneficial and adverse effects of H. pylori. Gastric acid, H. pylori infection, and other pathophysiological mechanisms influence the occurrence of reflux disease, peptic ulcer and dyspepsia, which all contribute to the occurrence of upper abdominal symptoms. Each influence is modeled as a separate compartment with various connections to other compartments. The simulation is carried out on an electronic spreadsheet.

A decision in favor or against eradication of all H. pylori depends primarily on the relative contribution of reflux disease vs. peptic ulcer and dyspepsia to upper abdominal symptoms in the general population. If reflux-related symptoms contribute twice more than peptic ulcer plus dyspepsia to the overall occurrence of abdominal symptoms, a strategy to eradicate H. pylori would actually lower rather than raise public health. Below this threshold such strategy may improve general well-being. In the individual patient infected with H. pylori, it remains beneficial to eradicate H. pylori, irrespective of the symptoms' nature.

Although it is advisable to treat H. pylori infection in the individual patient who comes to medical attention, a general policy directed towards complete elimination of H. pylori from the population would not be beneficial. A compartment model provides a simple yet powerful method to assess complex disease behavior.