Hazard prioritization in ecological risk assessment through spatial analysis of toxicant gradients

The analysis of spatial relationships among the distribution of environmental stressors and observed or predicted adverse effects may be a useful method of prioritizing hazards in regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). Geographic information systems were used to compare the spatial distribution of toxicant concentrations in sediments of Chesapeake Bay with the distribution of areas in the basin where ecological impacts have historically been observed. Toxicants were then prioritized based upon the strength of their spatial association with the high impact areas. This method of hazard identification/prioritization was validated against the Chesapeake Bay Program's lists of toxics of concern and toxics of potential concern (TOC and TOPC, respectively). Of the 18 toxicants on the TOC/TOPC lists that were considered in the current study, 15 (83%) were identified as priority contaminants in the current study, 11 (73%) of which were either of primary or secondary concern. The use of spatial analysis tools in ERA may lead to more rapid and rigorous methods for prioritizing environmental risks.