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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework.

Brian C O'Neill1,2, Timothy R Carter3, Kristie Ebi4

  • 1Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO USA.

Nature Climate Change
|December 2, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Global environmental change research relies on long-term scenarios. A decade-old framework combining climate and societal futures is widely adopted but faces challenges, requiring new development directions.

Keywords:
Climate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationProjection and predictionSocioeconomic scenariosSustainability

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Social Science

Background:

  • Long-term global scenarios have guided environmental change research for 40 years.
  • A decade-old integrated scenario framework combines climate and societal futures for policy-relevant research.
  • This framework aims to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the effectiveness and challenges of the integrated climate and societal scenario framework.
  • To identify areas for improvement and future development of scenario frameworks.

Main Methods:

  • Synthesis of scenario-based literature.
  • Analysis of community discussions and expert insights.
  • Review of recent experiences in global environmental change assessments.

Main Results:

  • The scenario framework has achieved wide adoption across research communities.
  • The framework is largely meeting immediate needs for integrated research and assessment.
  • Mixed successes and an evolving research and policy landscape present key challenges.

Conclusions:

  • The integrated scenario framework is a valuable tool but requires further development.
  • Recommendations are provided for future directions in framework development and utilization.
  • Adapting the framework to a changing scientific and policy environment is crucial.