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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming.

Ricarda Winkelmann1,2,3, Julius Garbe1,3, Jonathan F Donges1,2,4

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The Antarctic Ice Sheet faces irreversible ice loss due to warming. Different regions have tipping points, with West Antarctica at risk from 1-2°C warming and East Antarctica from 2-5°C, threatening significant sea-level rise.

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Climate-change impactsCryospheric scienceProjection and prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Glaciology
  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to amplifying feedbacks that accelerate ice loss.
  • Ice loss can lead to effectively irreversible retreat, posing significant risks to global sea levels.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the distinct nature and risk of long-term ice loss for individual Antarctic drainage basins.
  • To assess these risks under different global warming scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of ice loss dynamics across individual drainage basins.
  • Evaluation of topographic and climatic conditions influencing ice sheet stability.
  • Identification of critical warming thresholds for different Antarctic sectors.

Main Results:

  • Some Antarctic basins exhibit gradual ice loss with warming, while others have critical thresholds leading to disintegration.
  • A warming of 1-2°C above pre-industrial levels may trigger the collapse of ~40% of West Antarctic ice volume.
  • Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica, holding ~5m of potential sea-level rise, risk instability at 2-5°C warming.

Conclusions:

  • The Antarctic Ice Sheet comprises multiple interacting tipping systems, not a single monolithic one.
  • Understanding basin-specific vulnerabilities is crucial for predicting future sea-level rise.
  • Early warning thresholds for Antarctic ice loss are identifiable and critical for climate mitigation efforts.