Modelling the 137Cs ingestion dose from consumption of marine fish in Hong Kong

This paper presents a compartmental model for estimating the ingestion dose, due to 137Cs, arising from the consumption of marine fish in Hong Kong. 137Cs is one of the more important radionuclides released in routine liquid effluents discharged from the Guangdong Nuclear Power Station at Daya Bay, which began commercial operation in 1994. In the model, three sea/ocean compartments are considered. Assuming the discharge of this radionuclide is maintained at a constant rate, the model shows that the concentration of 137Cs in the water and in the marine fish in the three sea compartments would become steady after 5 years. The predicted annual dose to an average local individual in Hong Kong, for a release rate of 10 GBq.y(-1), is 3.2 x 10(-5) microSv, which is dominated by the contribution from fish cultured in Hong Kong waters. The cumulative collective dose to the local population of 6 million, at 50 years of discharge, amounts to 9.0 x 10(-3) man.Sv. The annual dose to members of the critical group of local fish farmers does not exceed 3.0 x 10(-3) microSv. All these doses are small compared to the dose of around 1.2 microSv.y(-1) arising from ingestion of naturally occurring radionuclides found in marine fish. Sensitivity of model parameters and uncertainties of prediction are also studied. Difficulties encountered in model validation are discussed. Despite such difficulties. limited field data that are available show that the predicted results are generally within one order of magnitude with measurements.