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Future trends in contraceptive prevalence and method mix in the developing world
John Bongaarts1, Elof Johansson
1Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, USA. jbongaarts@popcouncil.org
Studies in Family Planning
|April 27, 2002
Summary
Future contraceptive needs will rise significantly, with millions more users expected in developing nations. This study refines projection methods for contraceptive trends and new method development.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Reproductive Health
Background:
- Global population growth and declining fertility rates are increasing demand for contraception.
- Contraceptive use is projected to rise substantially, particularly in developing regions.
- Understanding future contraceptive needs is crucial for public health planning and resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review and evaluate existing methodologies for projecting future contraception trends.
- To propose improvements to current projection methodologies.
- To assess the potential for new contraceptive methods in the next decade.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing projection methodologies for contraceptive demand and method mix.
- Evaluation of the validity of assumptions used in these projections.
- Development of a proposed new methodology for projecting contraceptive method distribution.
Main Results:
- Current UN projections for overall contraceptive user numbers are deemed reasonable.
- Projecting the future distribution of specific contraceptive methods presents significant challenges.
- Existing methodologies for projecting method mix were found to be suboptimal.
Conclusions:
- Methodological improvements are needed for accurate forecasting of contraceptive method distribution.
- Future contraceptive needs will require a nuanced understanding of method choice factors.
- Continued research and development are essential for meeting evolving contraceptive demands.