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Related Experiment Videos

Benchmarking the future generalist workforce.

Jon D Lurie1, David C Goodman, John E Wennberg

  • 1Center for the Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, NH, USA. jon.d.lurie@dartmouth.edu

Effective Clinical Practice : ECP
|May 7, 2002
PubMed
Summary
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The US physician workforce is projected to have a surplus of generalists by 2025, exceeding requirements. Current training levels indicate a substantial growth in generalist supply, surpassing benchmarks.

Area of Science:

  • Health Policy
  • Medical Workforce Analysis
  • Physician Supply Projections

Background:

  • Previous analyses indicated a shortage or adequate supply of generalist physicians in the US.
  • Recent trends show an increasing number of physicians entering primary care, suggesting a potential future surplus.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the future supply of generalist physicians.
  • To compare projected supply with estimated future requirements.

Main Methods:

  • A model was developed to project generalist supply based on physician entry and exit rates.
  • Data from the American Medical Association and American Osteopathic Association physician master-files were used.
  • Graduating trainees and workforce exit rates (death, retirement) were incorporated.

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Main Results:

  • Generalist supply is projected to increase from 69 to 88 per 100,000 population by 2025.
  • The effective supply, adjusted for workforce demographics, is estimated at 85 per 100,000.
  • By 2025, the effective supply is expected to exceed the Council on Graduate Medical Education's (COGME) upper requirement estimate, indicating a surplus of approximately 18,000 full-time equivalent generalists.

Conclusions:

  • At current training rates, the supply of generalist physicians is set to significantly increase.
  • The projected supply is expected to surpass established benchmarks for generalist physician requirements.