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A new decision sciences for complex systems.

Robert J Lempert1

  • 1RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407, USA. lempert@rand.org

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|May 16, 2002
PubMed
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Computer-Assisted Reasoning enables policy analysis using complex systems models. This inductive approach aids decision-making under deep uncertainty, particularly for climate change technology policies.

Area of Science:

  • Complex systems modeling
  • Computational experimentation
  • Policy analysis

Background:

  • Complex systems models offer valuable insights but are challenging to integrate with traditional decision analysis.
  • Decision-making often requires information types not readily supplied by standard complex systems models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce Computer-Assisted Reasoning (CAR) as a novel approach for policy analysis.
  • To demonstrate CAR's utility in applying complex systems models to real-world decision-making under deep uncertainty.
  • To explore the role of technology policies in climate change mitigation strategies using CAR.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments.
  • Systematically comparing alternative policy options through computational analysis.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Applying the CAR approach to the specific policy challenge of global climate change.

    • Main Results:

    • CAR facilitates the use of complex systems models for policy analysis.
    • The approach is effective for decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty.
    • CAR can inform the development of robust, adaptive strategies for greenhouse gas abatement, including technology policies.

    Conclusions:

    • Computer-Assisted Reasoning bridges the gap between complex systems modeling and practical policy analysis.
    • CAR offers a systematic method for evaluating policy options in the face of deep uncertainty.
    • The approach is particularly relevant for addressing complex global challenges like climate change.