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Probabilistic risk analysis and game theory.

Kjell Hausken1

  • 1School of Economics, Culture and Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Ullandhaug, Norway. kjell.hausken@oks.his.no

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|May 23, 2002
PubMed
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Individual players in Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) face conflicting incentives when improving system reliability. Game theory reveals how these behavioral conflicts, modeled as common games, impact overall system risk.

Area of Science:

  • Risk Analysis
  • Game Theory
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • System reliability improvements are often treated as public goods, leading to individual cost-benefit conflicts.
  • Individual player strategies at subsystem levels can diverge from collective system-level objectives.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To integrate game theory principles into Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA).
  • To analyze the impact of individual-collective conflicts on system reliability and risk.

Main Methods:

  • Application of game theory to model player interactions within various system configurations (series, parallel, summation).
  • Mapping common game theory scenarios (coordination, battle of the sexes, chicken, prisoner's dilemma) to system structures.

Main Results:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Identified specific game types that emerge in series, parallel, and summation systems.
  • Demonstrated how player preferences for incurring risk reduction costs create conflicts.

Conclusions:

  • Behavioral factors are crucial in PRA due to inherent conflicts between individual incentives and collective system reliability.
  • Game theory provides a framework for understanding and analyzing these behavioral dimensions in risk assessment.