Formalizing the Precautionary Principle Accounting for Strategic Interaction, Natural Factors, and Technological...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Game Theory
• Decision Science

Background:

• The precautionary principle (PP) lacks formalization regarding strategic interactions.
• Existing literature inadequately addresses the role of games in PP decision-making.
• Environmental and technological risk assessment requires robust frameworks for uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

• To formalize the precautionary principle (PP) using set theory and game theory.
• To introduce strategic interaction and game theory into PP analysis.
• To develop a framework for understanding uncertainty in PP through various game types.

Main Methods:

• Formalization of four PP dimensions (threat, uncertainty, action, command) using set theory.
• Development of flow and decision diagrams with feedback loops.
• Identification and analysis of six types of games within the PP framework, including interlinked games.

Main Results:

• The study identifies six game types applicable to the four dimensions of the PP.
• Strategic interaction is shown to introduce uncertainty regarding game selection, player participation, strategies, and payoffs.
• Revisitation of insurance and lottery games in the context of the safe minimum standard (SMS) for species extinction illustrates strategic interaction.

Conclusions:

• Incorporating strategic interaction and game theory provides a novel research agenda for the PP.
• Understanding game dynamics is crucial for addressing uncertainty in PP applications.
• The framework allows for analyzing payoff uncertainty and transformations between different game scenarios, enhancing risk management strategies.