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Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach
Ali Kerem Saysel1, Yaman Barlas, Orhan Yenigün
1Institute of Environmental Sciences and Industrial Engineering Department, Bogazici University, 80815 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey. ali.saysel@ifi.uib.no
Journal of Environmental Management
|June 4, 2002
Summary
The Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) may face water scarcity and pollution due to increased irrigation and intensive cotton farming. Policy adjustments in water release, field development, and crop rotation are crucial for long-term environmental sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Engineering
- Systems Analysis
Background:
- Regional agricultural projects, like the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), significantly impact social and natural environments.
- Water resource development in large-scale projects necessitates a comprehensive analysis of potential long-term environmental consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) concerning water resources, land use, degradation, pollution, and demography.
- To develop and utilize a system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) for policy analysis and to explore environmental sustainability strategies.
Main Methods:
- A systems perspective was adopted to analyze the totality of environmental, social, and economic issues.
- A system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) was developed, validated structurally and behaviorally, and used for policy analysis.
- The model was calibrated using available data to reflect real-world conditions.
Main Results:
- Simulation results indicate significant water scarcity in GAP due to increased cultivation of water-intensive crops like cotton.
- Pesticide and fertilizer consumption may reach undesirable levels, posing environmental risks.
- The model identified key policy tools for achieving sustainability.
Conclusions:
- Effective management of irrigation water release, irrigated field development rates, and farm rotation practices are vital for GAP's long-term environmental sustainability.
- The GAPSIM model serves as a valuable platform for policy-making in GAP and can be adapted for similar regional development projects.
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