A combination of an extrapolation method and a benchmark method to develop quantitative health targets for Japan

The aim of the present study was to propose a methodology to formulate quantitative health targets which combined an extrapolation method and a benchmark method, and to estimate the targets for mortality rates (Mb) for selected causes of death by the year 2010 in Japan. Using the extrapolation method, based on the nationwide Mt from 1988 to 1997, the Mt in 2010 was predicted using a regression model. Using the benchmark method, the paired-mean of the age-adjusted mortality rates (Mts) of the top five prefectures among 47 prefectures was calculated as the benchmark. Combining the predicted mortality and the benchmark mortality, year 2010 targets were determined. As a results year 2010 targets as percentages compared with Mt in 1997 for cancer at all sites, stomach cancer, lung cancer, colo-rectal cancer, liver cancer and stroke were estimated to be 93, 52, 94, 102, 53 and 52% for males, and 84, 43, 86, 82, 60, and 45%, for females, respectively. The methodology presented in this article could be used as a standard procedure to formulate realistic quantified health targets, which can be adopted to develop health policies in nations, regions and communities.