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Into the twenty-first century with British households
International Journal of Forecasting
|November 1, 1992
Summary
This study simulates British household data to 2001, projecting future household distributions. It analyzes various scenarios for different household types, providing insights into demographic changes.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demographics
- Household Economics
Background:
- Understanding the evolution of household structures is crucial for social and economic policy.
- Previous studies often relied on aggregated data, limiting detailed analysis of household dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate and project British household distributions to the year 2001 using micro-level data.
- To analyze the impact of different scenarios on future household compositions.
- To provide a detailed understanding of British household types and their demographic trajectories.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing micro-level data from the U.K. General Household Survey (GHS).
- Employing simulation techniques to age existing households to a future point (2001).
- Developing and applying differing scenarios (high and low variants) for household types.
Main Results:
- Projected distributions of various British household types in 2001 under different assumptions.
- Quantification of potential shifts in household composition and size.
- Identification of key drivers influencing household structural changes.
Conclusions:
- The simulation provides a robust projection of British household structures for 2001.
- The scenario analysis highlights the sensitivity of household distribution to demographic and social factors.
- This micro-level simulation approach offers valuable data for policy planning and social research.