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Measuring the compression of mortality.

V Kannisto

    Demographic Research
    |August 15, 2002
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Mortality compression, a measure of lifespan changes, has slowed significantly despite rising life expectancy. This indicates a stagnation in the narrowing of age at death, even in modern populations.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Public Health
    • Biostatistics

    Background:

    • Mortality compression quantifies the reduction in the variation of age at death.
    • Historically, declining mortality rates have been accompanied by significant compression.
    • Understanding mortality compression is crucial for public health and demographic analysis.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate four distinct methods for measuring mortality compression.
    • To assess the trends in mortality compression in historical and modern populations.
    • To recommend a suitable indicator for general use in analyzing lifespan changes.

    Main Methods:

    • Four measures of mortality compression were employed: standard deviation of age at death above the mode, standard deviation in the highest quartile, inter-quartile range, and the shortest age interval for a proportion of deaths (C-family indicators).
    Keywords:
    Age FactorsAge Specific Death RateDeath RateDemographic AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesMortalityPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyResearch Report

    Related Experiment Videos

  • These methods were applied to historical and contemporary population data.
  • The C-family of indicators, particularly the shortest age interval containing a given proportion of deaths, was recommended for general application.

    • Main Results:

    • All four measures demonstrated a significant compression of mortality during the transition from high to low mortality rates.
    • Recent decades show a stagnation in this compression, even with increasing life expectancy.
    • In contemporary populations, a 35-year interval is still required to encompass 90% of deaths, indicating incomplete compression.

    Conclusions:

    • The secular decline in mortality has been marked by substantial compression, but this trend has decelerated.
    • Further significant compression of human mortality, leading to a near-rectangular survival curve, appears unlikely.
    • Monitoring mortality compression indicators is valuable for understanding lifespan dynamics and population heterogeneity.