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Malthus to Solow.

G D Hansen, E C Prescott

    Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)
    |August 15, 2002
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This unified growth theory explains pre-1800 stagnant living standards and post-industrial revolution growth by integrating Malthus and Solow technologies. Technological progress eventually shifts economies to sustained growth, reducing population

    Area of Science:

    • Economic History
    • Growth Theory
    • Technological Progress

    Background:

    • Pre-1800 economies exhibited stagnant living standards despite technological advancements.
    • Modern industrial economies demonstrate sustained growth in living standards.
    • The Industrial Revolution marked a transition from stagnation to growth.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a unified growth theory explaining historical and modern economic trajectories.
    • To account for the transition from stagnant to growing per capita incomes.
    • To integrate the roles of land, labor, capital, and technology in economic growth.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilizing a standard growth model incorporating two distinct technologies: 'Malthus' (land, labor, capital) and 'Solow' (labor, capital).
    Keywords:
    DemographyEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsEconomic ModelModels, TheoreticalPopulation TheoryResearch MethodologySocial SciencesStandard Of LivingTechnologyTheoretical StudiesWorld

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Analyzing the economic dynamics under different technological regimes and population growth scenarios.
  • Demonstrating the shift from Malthus-dominant to Solow-dominant economic behavior.

    • Main Results:

    • In early development stages, Malthus technology dominates, leading to stagnant living standards due to population growth, even with technological progress.
    • Technological progress eventually makes Solow technology profitable, leading to the adoption of both technologies.
    • With Solow technology's increased influence, population growth has less impact, enabling sustained per capita income growth.

    Conclusions:

    • The theory unifies explanations for historical economic stagnation and modern economic growth.
    • The transition to sustained growth is driven by technological progress enabling the shift to land-independent production.
    • In the long run, economies converge to a standard Solow growth model dynamic.