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Time-dependent gambling: odds now, money later.
Michael D Sagristano1, Yaacov Trope, Nira Liberman
1Department of Psychology, New York University, New York 10003, USA.
Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|September 7, 2002
Summary
Temporal distance alters gambling choices. As gambles become more distant, people focus more on potential payoffs and less on probability, reflecting a shift in how future outcomes are perceived.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
Background:
- Understanding how temporal distance influences decision-making is crucial in behavioral economics.
- Previous research has explored factors affecting risk preferences, but the interplay with time remains complex.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how temporal distance affects the influence of probability and payoffs in gambling decisions.
- To explore the psychological mechanisms underlying these temporal shifts in preference.
Main Methods:
- Four experiments were conducted using various gambling scenarios, including urn draws, a card game, and a raffle.
- Participants' choices and the reasoning provided were analyzed in relation to the temporal proximity of potential outcomes.
Main Results:
- Temporal distance significantly increased the influence of payoffs while decreasing the influence of probability on gambling preferences.
- Participants offered more justifications related to payoffs and fewer related to probability when considering more distant gambles.
Conclusions:
- The findings support a temporal construal theory, suggesting that distant future outcomes are evaluated based on desirability, while near future outcomes are assessed on feasibility.
- This research provides insights into how individuals frame and choose between gambles depending on their temporal horizon.