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Aging, intergenerational distribution and public pension systems.

S E Jensen, S B Nielsen

    Public Finance = Finances Publiques
    |January 1, 1993
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Population aging from lower birth rates or longer lifespans reduces consumption and increases foreign asset acquisition. The burden distribution depends on policy choices regarding pension benefits and contributions.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Computational Modeling

    Background:

    • Population aging is a significant global demographic trend.
    • Understanding its macroeconomic and distributional impacts is crucial for policy-making.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop an intertemporal simulation model for analyzing demographic shocks.
    • To assess the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of population aging in a small open economy.

    Main Methods:

    • An intertemporal simulation model was developed.
    • The model analyzed two primary sources of population aging: reduced birth rates and increased life expectancy at retirement.

    Main Results:

    • Both demographic shocks led to a decrease in average consumption in the short and long run.
    Keywords:
    Consumption--determinantsDemographic AgingDemographic FactorsDependency BurdenEconomic ConditionsEconomic FactorsIntergenerational Transfers--determinantsMacroeconomic FactorsMicroeconomic FactorsModels, TheoreticalOld Age SecurityPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyWorld

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  • A significant net acquisition of foreign assets was observed.
  • The intergenerational distribution of adjustment burdens varied based on fixed policy parameters (benefit rate, contribution rate, or relative income).

    • Conclusions:

    • Demographic aging negatively impacts consumption and drives foreign asset accumulation.
    • Policy design critically influences how the costs of population aging are distributed across generations.