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Related Experiment Videos

The new Kuznets cycle: a test of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter hypothesis.

D A Ahlburg

    Research in Population Economics
    |January 1, 1982
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study validates the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model, confirming that larger generations lead to smaller succeeding ones. Findings support the model

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Economics
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • The Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model posits a relationship between the size of a generation and the subsequent generation's size.
    • Understanding generational dynamics is crucial for demographic and economic forecasting.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To empirically evaluate the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model.
    • To test the model's components and their aggregation into a demographic model.
    • To investigate the economic impacts of relative cohort size.

    Main Methods:

    • Empirical testing of individual components of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model.
    • Development of a closed demographic model based on the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter framework.
    • Forecasting U.S. birth rates using the derived models.
    Keywords:
    AmericasBirth RateCohort AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic FactorsEconomic ModelEstimation TechnicsEvaluationFertilityFertility MeasurementsMathematical ModelModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsUnited States

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    Main Results:

    • The study provides empirical support for the core components of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model.
    • The aggregated model successfully captures demographic generational dynamics.
    • The research highlights the influence of cohort size on economic performance.

    Conclusions:

    • The Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model remains a valid framework for understanding generational size dynamics.
    • The model's components are empirically supported and can be used for forecasting.
    • Relative cohort size significantly impacts economic outcomes for a generation.