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The "old age security hypothesis" reconsidered.

M Nerlove, A Razin, E Sadka

    Journal of Development Economics
    |August 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Introducing financial tools beyond children for future consumption in developing nations may lower population growth. However, this effect hinges on parents not valuing child quantity or well-being, as financial security can increase desired family size.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Economics
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Population growth in developing countries is a significant global concern.
    • Children have traditionally served as a primary means for old-age financial security.
    • Alternative financial instruments are emerging in developing economies.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the impact of alternative old-age financial security on population growth rates.
    • To investigate the role of parental preferences for child quantity and welfare in this relationship.

    Main Methods:

    • Economic modeling of household decisions.
    • Analysis of intergenerational transfers and consumption smoothing.
    • Simulation of demographic changes under varying assumptions.
    Keywords:
    Age FactorsChildChild WorthConsumptionDemographic FactorsDemographyDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily RelationshipsMacroeconomic FactorsMicroeconomic FactorsOld Age SecurityParentsPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthPopulation TheorySocial SciencesSocial WelfareTheoretical StudiesYouth

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    Main Results:

    • The reduction in population growth is contingent on parents' indifference to the number and welfare of their children.
    • When parents value their children, alternative financial provisions can lead to increased desired family size due to income effects.

    Conclusions:

    • The demographic impact of financial development is complex and depends on parental motivations.
    • Policies promoting financial inclusion must consider potential effects on fertility decisions.