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[Waves in demographic time series].

J A De Beer

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |November 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study analyzed Dutch birth, death, marriage, immigration, and emigration data for cyclical patterns. Births and marriages show long cycles, while immigration and emigration exhibit both long and short cycles, but explain limited variation.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Time Series Analysis
    • Population Studies

    Context:

    • Analysis of vital statistics and migration data in the Netherlands.
    • Utilizes historical data spanning from 1840 for vital events and 1900 for migration.
    • Employs spectral analysis to identify cyclical patterns in population dynamics.

    Purpose:

    • To investigate the presence of regular cycles in Dutch births, deaths, marriages, immigration, and emigration.
    • To determine the periodicity of identified cycles using spectral analysis after trend removal.
    • To assess cyclical patterns in both long-term historical data and post-World War II data.

    Summary:

    • Births and marriages in the Netherlands demonstrate a cyclical pattern exceeding 20 years.
    • Deaths do not exhibit a distinct cyclical pattern.
    Keywords:
    Demographic AnalysisDemographic FactorsDemographyDeveloped CountriesEuropeFertilityHistorical DemographyMarriageMigrationModels, TheoreticalMortalityNetherlandsNuptialityPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyResearch ReportSocial SciencesTime FactorsWestern Europe

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  • Immigration and emigration show a long cycle of approximately 20 years and a shorter cycle of 5-8 years.
  • Post-World War II data reveals different cyclical patterns.
  • Identified cycles account for a limited portion of the total variation in the series.

    • Impact:

    • Provides insights into the cyclical nature of demographic and migration trends in the Netherlands.
    • Highlights the limitations of cyclical patterns in explaining overall population dynamics.
    • Contributes to the understanding of long-term demographic forecasting and policy implications.