Urban development patterns in Indonesia.

Area of Science:

• Urban Planning and Development
• Regional Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Past analysis of Indonesian urban development suffered from inadequate data.
• The National Urban Development Strategy (NUDS) project has produced improved datasets.
• This study builds upon and expands the findings of the NUDS project.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze urban growth rates at the provincial level in Indonesia.
• To identify key determinants of urban growth, including private investment and rural immigration.
• To examine patterns of urban polarization at the city level.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of recently generated urban development data from the NUDS project.
• Statistical examination of provincial-level urban growth rates.
• Investigation of city-level polarization trends.

Main Results:

• Private investment is a primary driver of urban growth rates across Indonesian provinces.
• Rural immigration and existing urbanization levels are also significant factors influencing urban growth.
• Private investment shows a strong bias towards provinces with established large urban areas.
• The trend of rapidly increasing urban polarization has ceased in the last decade.

Conclusions:

• Urban development in Indonesia is significantly influenced by private investment, rural-to-urban migration, and the level of existing urbanization.
• The findings provide updated insights into the dynamics of urban growth and spatial inequalities in Indonesia.
• The study highlights a recent shift in urban development patterns, with a stabilization of city polarization.