Application of game theoretic analysis to a problem in demography

Area of Science:

• Urban planning and economic geography
• Agricultural economics
• Game theory applications

Background:

• National policies over two decades have concentrated industry in major cities.
• This has resulted in significant urban population and land area expansion.
• Fertile rural land is increasingly being converted for urban development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the long-term effects of industrial concentration policies on land use.
• To evaluate the risk of agricultural land loss in Colombia.
• To model the continuation of urbanization trends using game theory.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of Nash equilibria to model strategic interactions.
• Examination of government policies driving industrial and urban growth.
• Assessment of land use changes in relation to agricultural productivity.

Main Results:

• A demonstrated risk of continued, extensive urbanization.
• Identification of fertile land as particularly vulnerable to conversion.
• The potential for near-complete urbanization of available land.

Conclusions:

• Current government strategies pose a significant threat to agricultural capabilities.
• Political pressures exacerbate the trend towards total land urbanization.
• Urgent policy reconsideration is needed to balance urban development and agricultural preservation in Colombia.