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[The reliability of birth expectations].
Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
|October 1, 1982
Summary
Women in developed countries tend to overestimate their lifetime births, with newly married women showing a significant aggregate overestimation of up to 35 percent in fertility research. This highlights a notable gap between expected and actual fertility.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Reproductive Health
Context:
- Review of studies on the reliability of birth expectations in developed countries.
- Focus on aggregate-level reliability of fertility predictions.
Purpose:
- To analyze the accuracy of aggregate birth expectations in developed nations.
- To quantify the overestimation of lifetime births by women.
Summary:
- On average, women in fertility research overestimate their lifetime births.
- For newly married women, this aggregate overestimation can reach as high as 35 percent.
- Findings indicate a consistent pattern of inflated fertility expectations at a population level.
Impact:
- Informs demographic projections and family planning policies.
- Provides insights into the discrepancies in reproductive decision-making.
- Highlights the need for improved fertility forecasting models.