[The stability of long-term birth expectations, 1982-1985].

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Reproductive Health

Background:

• Understanding fertility trends is crucial for population planning.
• Longitudinal studies are valuable for tracking changes in reproductive intentions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze changes in expected births in the Netherlands.
• To assess the stability of fertility intentions over a three-year period.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the 1982 Netherlands Fertility Survey.
• Employed a follow-up survey in 1985 to re-interview respondents.

Main Results:

• Four out of five respondents gave identical answers regarding having children (yes/no/don't know).
• 87% of respondents were stable in their expectation of having no more children.
• 84% were stable in their expectation of having one or more additional children.
• Aggregate average expected number of children showed minimal change.

Conclusions:

• Fertility intentions in the Netherlands demonstrate considerable stability.
• The findings suggest that stated fertility expectations are reliable indicators of future fertility behavior.