A lognormal model for divorce by marriage cohort

"In this paper a model to predict the cumulative divorce trajectory of marriage cohorts has been developed on the assumption that the distribution of the lengths of exposure to marriage of a marriage cohort is lognormal. It is found that on the basis of recently published data [for the United States for the period 1949-1958] the model provides a good fit to cohort divorce trajectories and compares favorably with previously published models on the same subject."