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Four themes in fertility research.

M P Shields, R L Tracy

    Southern Economic Journal
    |July 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary

    U.S. fertility trends since 1920 were influenced by falling infant mortality, rising income, and women's labor force participation. Future fertility may see a temporary rise due to age structure shifts.

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    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Sociology
    • Economics

    Background:

    • U.S. fertility rates have shown significant fluctuations since 1920.
    • Understanding the drivers of these trends is crucial for demographic and economic forecasting.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the key factors influencing U.S. fertility trends since 1920.
    • To examine the historical impact of selected variables on the total fertility rate.
    • To project future fertility implications based on identified trends.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized four key themes: time adjustment, income, female labor force participation, and intergenerational factors.
    • Selected single variables to represent each theme for model estimation.
    • Examined the changing role of these variables in explaining fertility rate variations over time.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsFertility--changesHistorical SurveyHuman ResourcesIncomeIntergenerational TransfersLabor Force--womenMicroeconomic FactorsModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsTime FactorsUnited States

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    Main Results:

    • Early fertility decline was linked to reduced infant mortality.
    • Post-WWII fertility increase correlated with declining age structure and rising income.
    • Subsequent fertility decrease associated with increased female labor force participation and age structure changes.

    Conclusions:

    • Historical U.S. fertility is a complex interplay of demographic and socioeconomic factors.
    • Falling infant mortality and economic conditions significantly shaped fertility patterns.
    • Future fertility may experience a short-term increase driven by age structure dynamics.