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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
A model of temporary migration: the Egyptian case
Summary
This study introduces a family migration model explaining voluntary, temporary migration driven by regional differences. It analyzes Egyptian migration to the Gulf using a household production model and the 1982 Egyptian Fertility Survey.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Sociology
- Demography
Background:
- Regional disparities in amenities and wages drive migration.
- Temporary migration is a significant demographic phenomenon, particularly from Egypt to the Gulf region.
- Pre-Gulf War migration patterns differed significantly from post-war patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce and test a family migration model.
- To analyze Egyptian temporary migration to the Gulf region.
- To understand the drivers of voluntary, temporary migration.
Main Methods:
- Development of a two-period household production model.
- Empirical testing using the 1982 Egyptian Fertility Survey data.
- Analysis of temporary migration patterns before the Gulf War.
Main Results:
- The model explains voluntary, temporary migration based on regional economic and amenity differences.
- The 1982 survey data provides a unique snapshot of peak Egyptian temporary migration.
- The study highlights the distinct migration dynamics before the Gulf War.
Conclusions:
- Family migration decisions are influenced by regional economic factors and amenities.
- Temporary migration models are crucial for understanding labor mobility.
- The findings offer insights into historical Egyptian migration patterns to the Gulf.
Keywords:
AfricaArab CountriesDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsEgyptFamily And HouseholdInternational MigrationMacroeconomic FactorsMediterranean CountriesMigrationModels, TheoreticalNorthern AfricaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic StatusTemporary MigrationWagesRelated Concept Videos
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