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Updated: Sep 29, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
The effectiveness of family-planning programmes
Abstract:
By the mid-1960s, countries that accounted for 66% of the population of developing countries had adopted policies designed to reduce their rates of population growth; by 1986, the corresponding figure had reached 78%. In the developing regions as a whole, fertility has fallen by more than 30% since 1950. Contraceptive use has risen sharply, and there has been more than 10-fold increase in the number of couples in developing countries who use contraceptives. There is a very strong association between use of contraception and fertility in developing countries. Social and economic modernization is also taking place, although quite unevenly in the developing regions, so that the relationship of modernization is fertility is not very easy to demonstrate. In general, the experience of the developing countries suggest that a strong family- planning program effort can, and does, lead to a more rapid fertility decline than would be likely based only on socioeconomic variables. The effectiveness of family-planning programs can be enhanced by increasing the range of choice of contraceptive methods offered. However, it is difficult to disentangle the various factors that contribute to the effectiveness of family-planning programs. The public sector is the main supplier of family-planning services in most developing countries, and there is no clear trend towards the reliance on the private sector.
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