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Birth number base and its application.

J Han, Y Liu

    Chinese Journal of Population Science
    |January 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary
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    The birth number base, reflecting women's fecundity, is the number of births when total fertility rate is one. This concept aids in projecting future birth prevention needs for population targets.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Reproductive Health

    Background:

    • Understanding female fecundity is crucial for population dynamics.
    • Accurate fertility metrics are essential for demographic projections.
    • Previous methods may not fully capture long-term fertility trends.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • Introduce the novel concept of 'birth number base'.
    • Detail methodologies for calculating the birth number base.
    • Apply the concept to analyze population targets using real-world data.

    Main Methods:

    • Defining the birth number base as annual births at a total fertility rate of one.
    • Utilizing data from China's 1982 1 per 1,000 population survey.
    • Employing demographic projection models.
    Keywords:
    AsiaBirths AvertedChinaDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEastern AsiaFamily PlanningFamily Planning Program EvaluationFamily Planning ProgramsFecundityFertilityMethodological StudiesPopulationPopulation DynamicsReproduction

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    Main Results:

    • The study establishes a quantifiable measure of fecundity.
    • Application to Chinese data provides insights into future birth prevention requirements.
    • Projected numbers highlight the scale of intervention needed for population control.

    Conclusions:

    • The birth number base offers a valuable metric for assessing reproductive potential.
    • The concept is applicable for setting and evaluating population control strategies.
    • Effective population management requires understanding and applying fertility-based metrics.