Applications of the Heligman/Pollard model mortality schedule

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Mortality Analysis
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Demographic measurement software like MORTPAK-Lite is crucial for analyzing population trends.
• Accurate mortality data, especially at single-year age intervals, is essential for reliable demographic projections.
• Existing methods for graduating mortality data may require refinement for specific analytical needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and demonstrate the utility of the UNABR routine within MORTPAK-Lite.
• To apply the Heligman/Pollard model for graduating mortality probabilities from five-year to single-year age groups.
• To illustrate diverse applications of model mortality schedules in demographic research.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the UNABR routine from MORTPAK-Lite software.
• Employed the eight-parameter Heligman/Pollard model for mortality schedule graduation.
• Applied graduated mortality data to various analytical scenarios.

Main Results:

• Successfully converted age-specific mortality probabilities from five-year to single-year age groups.
• Demonstrated the effectiveness of the Heligman/Pollard model in demographic analysis.
• Showcased applications in historical time-series, forecasting, cause-of-death studies, and spatial/sex-specific mortality analyses for the US, England, and Australia.

Conclusions:

• The UNABR routine and Heligman/Pollard model provide a robust method for detailed mortality analysis.
• Model mortality schedules are valuable tools for demographic forecasting and understanding mortality patterns.
• The approach facilitates nuanced investigations into factors influencing mortality across different populations and demographics.