China. Population. New threat

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• China's population was 982.55 million in 1980, representing 20% of the global population.
• The natural population growth rate declined to 12/1000 in 1980, down from 26/1000 in 1970.
• Mortality rates decreased significantly due to improved living standards and medical facilities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess threats to China's population control program.
• To analyze the impact of increased marriages and life expectancy on population growth.
• To evaluate the sustainability of the national population target of 1200 million by 2000.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of demographic data from official Chinese sources and UN statistics.
• Review of birth rates, death rates, marriage trends, and life expectancy.
• Examination of population control policies and their effectiveness.

Main Results:

• A doubling of marriages threatens a new baby boom.
• Increased life expectancy (doubled to 68 years in 1980) also impacts population growth.
• Previous success in reducing birth rates (23.1% between 1960-65 and 1970-75) is at risk.

Conclusions:

• China's population control program faces significant challenges from a potential baby boom and rising life expectancy.
• The government's goal to limit the population to 1200 million by the end of the century is threatened.
• Urgent policy adjustments may be needed to address these demographic shifts.