Modeling urban decline: a multilevel economic-demographic model for the Dortmund region

"Selected results of a multilevel dynamic simulation model of the economic and demographic development of the urban region of Dortmund [Federal Republic of Germany] are presented. In particular, the capability of the model to capture both urban growth and urban decline processes is illustrated. The mechanisms that control spatial growth, decline, or redistribution of activities in the model are first outlined, and a demonstration of how the model reproduces the general pattern of past spatial development follows. Finally, results of simulations covering a wide range of potential overall economic and demographic development in the region are discussed." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )