Modelling the peopling of Australia: 1900-1930

Area of Science:

• Economic History
• Migration Studies
• Econometrics

Background:

• Historical migration patterns between the UK and Australia (1900-1930).
• Limitations of previous migration models, particularly 'push-pull' approaches.
• The role of government policy in shaping migration flows.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and estimate a Marshallian scissors model for migration.
• To integrate government intervention into migration structural equations.
• To analyze the economic determinants of UK-Australia migration.

Main Methods:

• Econometric modeling of migration behavior.
• Separating supply and demand factors in migration equations.
• Incorporating government policy as a structural variable.

Main Results:

• Identified expected income gains as a key driver of migration.
• Quantified the impact of transport costs on migration flows.
• Assessed the influence of job search costs on annual migration variations.
• Demonstrated the relationship between economic factors and Australian immigration support.

Conclusions:

• The study provides a novel econometric framework for migration analysis.
• Government intervention significantly impacts migration dynamics.
• Economic incentives and costs are critical determinants of historical UK-Australia migration.