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Migration, unemployment and development: a dynamic two-sector analysis.

M R Gupta

    Economics Letters
    |January 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study addresses achieving full employment by optimizing investment in a dual-economy model. Initial investment should focus on the urban sector, especially when urban capital is scarce.

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    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Development Economics
    • Labor Economics

    Background:

    • Dual-economy models are crucial for understanding development.
    • The Harris-Todaro migration mechanism explains rural-urban labor migration.
    • Initial conditions of positive urban unemployment and low urban capital stock are considered.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To solve the time-minimizing problem of reaching full employment.
    • To analyze optimal investment strategies in a dual-economy context.
    • To investigate the role of the Harris-Todaro mechanism in development.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilizing a dual-economy model framework.
    • Incorporating the Harris-Todaro migration mechanism.
    • Solving a time-minimizing optimization problem.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsEconomic ModelEmploymentEmployment StatusHuman ResourcesLabor ForceMacroeconomic FactorsMigrationModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyRural-urban MigrationSocioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic StatusUnemployment

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    Main Results:

    • The optimal development strategy involves specializing investment in the urban sector initially.
    • This specialization is particularly effective when the initial per-capita urban capital stock is very low.
    • The model demonstrates a pathway to full employment under specific initial conditions.

    Conclusions:

    • Urban-biased investment can accelerate the transition to full employment.
    • The initial level of urban capital stock is a critical determinant of optimal investment strategy.
    • Policy interventions should consider sector-specific investment to overcome unemployment.