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Temporary vs. permanent migration: a decision theoretical approach.

S Berninghaus, H G Seifert-vogt

    Journal of Population Economics
    |January 1, 1988
    PubMed
    Summary
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    A temporary equilibrium model for international migration.

    Journal of population economics·1991
    Same author

    International migration under incomplete information.

    Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik·1987
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    Guest workers aiming to save capital may extend their stay abroad due to incomplete economic information. Unfavorable host country conditions can unexpectedly lead to permanent migration, impacting return migration decisions.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Migration Studies
    • Labor Economics

    Background:

    • Guest workers often plan temporary stays to accumulate capital for home country investment.
    • Incomplete information about host country economic variables can influence a migrant's decision-making process.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the decision-making problem of a guest worker acting as a target saver.
    • To identify conditions under which temporary migration may become permanent.

    Main Methods:

    • Economic modeling of guest worker savings and investment behavior.
    • Analysis of decision-making under uncertainty regarding host country economic variables.

    Main Results:

    • The study outlines explicit conditions related to economic variables that can prolong a guest worker's stay.
    Keywords:
    BehaviorDecision MakingDemographic FactorsEconomic ConditionsEconomic FactorsHuman ResourcesInternational MigrationLabor ForceMacroeconomic FactorsMicroeconomic FactorsMigrantsMigrationPopulationPopulation DynamicsRemittancesReturn MigrationSavingsSocioeconomic FactorsTemporary MigrationWorld

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  • Unfavorable economic conditions in the host country increase the likelihood of unexpected, prolonged stays.

    • Conclusions:

    • Guest worker decisions are sensitive to economic information availability and host country conditions.
    • Temporary migration can transition to permanent migration if economic incentives and information asymmetry persist.